Two clubs, Essendon and Carlton, have won the most VFL/AFL premierships … More interesting is the over-/under-achievement column, which compares xPremierships to actual premierships.
I’m gonna do that but for NRL.”For the record, I couldn’t be bothered working out how to implement the top ten system in Excel logic, which is why this post only covers 1999 onwards.To date, no team that has finished outside of the top four on the ladder has won a NRL premiership.The Roosters are the only team to have choked twice, in spite of (or because of) being favourites four times. The Gold Coast’s three finals appearances didn’t add up to much in the way of expectations, which you can feel is intuitively true.In our case, let’s say Cronulla has a 25% chance of winning the 2101 finals series, because it will take them nearly a century to be as competitive again as they were in 2016. If you have a process which has a range of outcomes, each with a defined value or payout and specified probability, you can calculate the expectation of the outcome of that process.Example 1: There are six numbers on a die (1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6), each at 1 in 6 chance. Each year, the premiership is awarded to the club that wins the AFL Grand Final. The successful clubs – that is, those that make the finals more regularly – rank higher on xPremierships than the less successful ones. While many of their premierships came in the pre and post-war era (1911–13, 1923, 1935–37, 1940, 1945), the Roosters have also been one of the most successful clubs in the modern era.
Similarly, if Cronulla is a 20% chance every year from 2104 to 2108, then we would expect them to win one (5 years x 20% = 1 expected premiership). They finished minor premiers three years running 2013 to 2015 and only have one premiership to show for it. | All Premiership … Melbourne only slightly underperform instead of massively over-achieving if they had five real premierships but only 3.1 xPremierships.Looking at the green column of the collated table doesn’t tell you much you wouldn’t have already known. The Australian Football League (AFL), known as the Victorian Football League (VFL) until 1990, is the elite national competition in men's Australian rules football. 1902: Revolution Under the old McIntyre system, the top two were heavily advantaged but there was no real reward for finishing third compared to sixth.The notion of expected premierships, or xPremierships (or xPrem), is tangentially related to expectation.Given that we are missing two of the nineteen premierships, the over-/under- column should equal to zero but does not. Cronulla were six times more likely to win in 1999.